SpaceX Rocket Stage to Collide with Moon in August, Astronomer Confirms

A discarded upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is on track to collide with the Moon this summer, according to astronomer Bill Gray, creator of the Project Pluto software used to track near-Earth objects.

The impact is predicted to occur at 2:44 AM EDT on August 5, 2024, striking near the Einstein crater on the Moon’s near side. The 45-foot-long rocket stage was part of a mission that launched on January 15, 2025, carrying two lunar landers: Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto-R.

Since its launch, the spent rocket has orbited Earth in a path similar to the Moon’s. Over the past year, asteroid surveys have observed the object more than 1,000 times, providing sufficient data to project its trajectory with high confidence. Gray noted in his report that the object’s motion is influenced by the gravity of the Earth, Moon, Sun, and planets, which can be calculated with immense precision.

However, solar radiation can introduce slight variations. Gray explained that as the object tumbles, it may catch varying amounts of sunlight, reflecting some of it sideways. This can gently nudge the object in unpredictable directions. Despite this interference, Gray’s predictions remain reliable, though precision is limited to within a few meters and fractions of a second.

When the rocket stage impacts the Moon, it will be traveling at 1.51 miles per second—seven times the speed of sound on Earth. Gray previously predicted the impact of another discarded rocket stage in 2022, which was initially believed to be a Falcon 9 upper stage but later identified as part of China’s Chang’e 5-T1 lunar mission. That collision unexpectedly created a double crater, a phenomenon scientists are still investigating.

Concerns Over Space Debris and Future Lunar Missions

Gray emphasized that the upcoming collision underscores the risks posed by space debris, particularly as lunar missions become more frequent. With the Earth’s orbit growing increasingly crowded, the potential for wayward human-made objects to interfere with future Moon missions rises. This issue is compounded by the ambitions of the US and China to establish a sustained human presence on the Moon, making debris management a critical concern for space agencies worldwide.