Crypto Perpetual Futures Race: Kalshi, Polymarket, and Hyperliquid Compete for Gambling Super-App Dominance

Crypto trading platforms are racing to build the ultimate gambling super-app, with Kalshi, Polymarket, and Hyperliquid leading the charge. Each is expanding its product offerings to create continuous speculative loops, locking users into high-margin trading environments.

Kalshi and Polymarket Enter the Crypto Perpetual Futures Market

Kalshi is reportedly preparing to offer US crypto perpetual futures, joining Polymarket, which announced today that perpetual contracts are coming to its platform and opened early access sign-ups. This move follows Hyperliquid’s documentation of outcome token trading alongside its mainnet-deployed perpetuals via the Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 4 (HIP-4).

Pump.fun has also evolved into a social trading environment where users can browse coins, follow creators, watch livestreams, and swap tokens without leaving the app. The common thread across these platforms is a strategy to keep users engaged in a continuous cycle of speculation, making exits costly and ensuring they remain within the ecosystem.

Revenue Models: Event Markets vs. Perpetual Futures

Hyperliquid currently posts:

• $191 billion in 30-day perpetual volume
• $61 million in 30-day fees
• $7.35 billion in open interest
• An implied gross fee rate of 3.1 basis points

For event markets, Clear Street estimates 2026 volumes of $96 billion for Kalshi and $84 billion for Polymarket, with take rates of approximately 2% and 0.5%, respectively. At these rates:

• Kalshi-style event flow generates roughly 64 times as much revenue per notional dollar as Hyperliquid’s perpetual flow.
• Polymarket-style flow comes in at about 16 times richer.

Kalshi and Polymarket event flow earns 200 and 50 basis points per notional dollar, respectively, compared to 3.1 basis points for Hyperliquid perpetuals.

Why the Shift Toward Event Markets?

A perpetual exchange adding event contracts seeks to attract higher-margin flow from existing users. Meanwhile, a prediction market platform moving into perpetuals adds a continuous-revenue layer to a business that otherwise earns only when discrete events resolve.

Short-Duration Contracts Dominate Trading Activity

The Financial Times reported in March that 5-minute and 15-minute crypto bets on Polymarket and Kalshi were generating roughly $70 million in daily trading volume and accounted for more than half of total trading on those platforms. Short-duration contracts now dominate activity on both platforms, explaining why Hyperliquid’s testnet docs include a recurring HYPE price binary with a 3-minute settlement period.

The direction of travel across every major venue is toward shorter, more repeatable, and more monetizable cycles.

Hyperliquid’s Path to Outcome Token Trading

Hyperliquid built its identity on permissionless perpetuals and the deepest on-chain order book in crypto. Its mainnet HIP-3 protocol allows builders to deploy custom perpetual contracts without approval. The testnet now documents outcome token trading with fee structures that charge only on closing or settlement—an architecture that makes event contracts cheap to open but costly to exit.

Mainnet deployment of outcome contracts is one decision away, as the fee structure, settlement logic, and contract architecture are already documented.

Kalshi’s Regulatory Edge and Expansion

Kalshi established its position through regulated event contracts under CFTC oversight, running crypto predictions across weekly and monthly horizons. The platform won a federal legal fight when the Third Circuit ruled that federal derivatives law preempts New Jersey’s attempt to block its sports event contracts.

Kalshi is now reportedly preparing to add crypto perpetual futures, importing the always-on leveraged product that has driven much of crypto’s speculative boom.