VanEck Identifies Key Bullish Signals for Bitcoin Amid Negative Funding and Hash Rate Decline

Bitcoin’s onchain and derivatives data are signaling a constructive setup, according to VanEck’s latest report. The firm points to negative funding rates and a clustered decline in the Bitcoin hash rate as key indicators of a potential bullish reversal.

Negative Funding Rates Signal Contrarian Opportunity

VanEck reports that Bitcoin’s realized volatility has softened from approximately 56% to 41% as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran eased. Concurrently, the 7-day average funding rate has dropped to roughly -1.8%, marking its lowest level since 2023 and placing it in the 10th percentile of readings since late 2020.

Historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s average 30-day return during periods of negative funding stands at 11.5%, compared to 4.5% across all periods. The hit rate for positive performance in these scenarios is 77%. When annualized funding rates fall below -5%, subsequent 30-day returns average 19.4%, with 180-day returns reaching 70%. Negative funding rates have consistently served as a contrarian buy signal.

VanEck’s analysis shows that 19 of the top 50 180-day return windows since 2020 began on days with negative funding, despite such periods accounting for only about 13.6% of the sample.

Bitcoin Hash Rate Enters Stress Zone

On the mining front, the 30-day moving average hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile over 30 days and the 9th percentile over 90 days. Mining difficulty has also declined, reaching the 5th and 6th percentiles over the same periods.

Since December 2025, Bitcoin has experienced three sustained hash rate decline episodes, the most concentrated cluster since China’s 2021 mining ban. The latest drawdown, ending on April 15, 2026, saw a decline of about 6.7%. Across seven completed historical drawdowns, Bitcoin was higher 90 days later in six cases, with a median gain of 37.7%. Over 180 days, the median gain was 63.1%.

Market Sentiment Remains Guarded, Not Capitulated

Derivatives and onchain activity suggest a cautious market sentiment rather than outright capitulation. Put premiums relative to spot volume are more than six times their April 2024 level, while active supply over the last 180 days has slipped to 28.4%, indicating greater holder dormancy.

Long-tenured Bitcoin holders, particularly those in the 7-10 year and 10+ year cohorts, have increased spent volume to the 85th and 90th percentiles of the past four years. However, VanEck notes that such movements do not necessarily represent outright selling.

VanEck Concludes Reinforced Bullish Backdrop

“Both mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have been associated with strong forward BTC returns. As such, we have become increasingly bullish on bitcoin.”

VanEck’s findings suggest that the combination of negative funding rates and hash rate stress creates a reinforced bullish backdrop for Bitcoin, despite the current cautious market positioning.

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